Doha: The Qatar National Bank (QNB) has forecasted a potential reacceleration of the US economy, anticipating a growth rate above the consensus 2% for this year, driven by robust consumption and private investment.

According to Qatar News Agency, the QNB’s Economic Commentary highlights a shift in the US economic outlook from an expected slowdown to a more optimistic growth trajectory, fueled by disruptive policy changes from the new administration. Economic indicators have stabilized, with some pointing to increased activity. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s ‘GDP Now’ model, which provides real-time estimates of GDP growth, suggests a significant rise to an annualized growth rate of 3.8% in the third quarter of 2025, a notable improvement from a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter.

The QNB report emphasizes that household consumption is a major contributor to this economic momentum, accounting for nearly 70% of GDP. Despite a slowdown in job gains, the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, and r
eal earnings continue to outpace inflation, bolstering aggregate household incomes. A positive wealth effect from rising stock markets and increased access to credit further supports consumption, with retail sales adjusted for inflation accelerating to 1.7% year-over-year.

In addition to consumer spending, business investment is experiencing strong growth, driven by favorable financial conditions, fiscal incentives, and technology-related capital expenditures. The report notes a significant uptick in ‘core capital goods orders,’ indicating robust private-sector investment. Factors such as the demand for equipment and technology, policy incentives like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, and healthy corporate profits are fueling this investment boom.

These combined factors suggest a reacceleration of the US economy, with QNB projecting growth above the consensus estimate due to the strong momentum in consumption and private investment.